Forex Pips – Guide To Profitable Forex Spread Betting Rotating Header Image

Government

Government and Economy Decline In Tandem

I did not hear it, but I read that Ben Bernanke, chairman of the satanic Federal Reserve, admitted that “Our nation’s fiscal position has deteriorated appreciably since the onset of the financial crisis and the recession.”

Well, neither he nor the Federal Reserve are going to take any of the blame, even though they are solely responsible, and he says that the problem is the government’s fiscal position, as “The exceptional increase in the deficit has in large part reflected the effects of the weak economy on tax revenues and spending, along with the necessary policy actions taken to ease the recession and steady financial markets.”

No mention, of course, of the crucial role of the Federal Reserve, which was to create the money to create the boom, which created the bust, and now to create the money to bail everybody out so that we, as a nation, would have time to leisurely wait for some miracle to happen, sort of like at the end of old Grecian dramas where the plot has become so impossibly and hopelessly tangled up that the only solution was to resort to a “deus ex machina,” which is when a supernatural power comes roaring in and magically fixes everything, applause, applause, applause, curtain comes down, the actors take a bow and everybody goes home happy.

As if waiting for a deus ex machina was not enough, Bernanke then contradicts himself. In the first paragraph when he said that the fiscal position of the nation has “appreciably deteriorated,” which is code for “We’re Freaking Doomed In Spades (WFDIS)” because the American system of governments IS the economy!

In fact, the incestuous conglomeration of local, county, state and federal government is now so large that it, literally, is the economy when you combine local government spending and county government spending and state government spending and federal government spending, which collectively now spends slightly more than half of GDP! Half! And taxpayers pay them to employ 1-out-of-6 workers! And government supports half of the population consisting of the old, young, infirm and needy or greedy in some way or another.

Therefore, I postulate that since government, and those who depend on government spending, is the majority of the population, if the government is not doing well, then the economy is not doing well.

This is like when you were a kid and you learned that when mom isn’t happy, then nobody is going to be happy, or, if you are an adult, when the boss isn’t happy, then nobody is going to be happy, which happened to me just last week when my boss was waiting for me, in my office, when I dragged myself back from lunch two hours late, stinking of beer and pizza, mostly because I had dribbled a lot of each down the front of my shirt and pants.

For some strange reason, probably indicating drunkenness and/or mental illness, I decided, on the spot, that a good offense was preferable to a good defense. So I said to her, “What in the hell are YOU looking at?”

Well, it made her unhappy, and she subsequently made me unhappy. And while I am always ready to use things like this to prove, as if any more proof is needed, that people are naturally hateful to me and they are all out to get me, in this case I will merely use the point to prove that when the government is not happy, the economy is not happy, although this is immediately contradicted by that moron Ben Bernanke, of the Federal Reserve, who says that the economy is recovering! Hahaha!

In fact, he said that not only is the economy recovering, but it will continue to recover! Just listen to this: He actually said, “As the economy and financial markets continue to recover, and as the actions taken to provide economic stimulus and promote financial stability are phased out, the budget deficit should narrow over the next few years”! Hahahaha!

This makes me laugh out loud – hahahaha! – at the humorous, “Theater of the Absurd” quality of saying such a thing, sort of like Pollyanna on steroids and antidepressants! Hahaha!

Then he goes on “Even after economic and financial conditions have returned to normal,” which is a point in his remarks where I just couldn’t take any more of that crap, and my mind leapt to add “In your freaking dreams, Bernanke! Show me one time in all of history where some dirtbag government and its half-witted populace bankrupted themselves with printing, and then borrowing and spending, too much fiat money, for too long, and how printing, and then borrowing, more fiat money fixed everything! Just one! Hahahaha!”

Naturally, he does not acknowledge my rude interruption, and goes on, as if I was not even there, ignoring my rude taunting, by saying that it is still the government’s fault for borrowing and spending all the money that the Federal Reserve created, and that “in the absence of further policy actions, the federal budget appears to be on an unsustainable path. A variety of projections that extrapolate current policies and make plausible assumptions about the future evolution of the economy show a structural budget gap that is both large relative to the size of the economy and increasing over time.”

And what he will do is print the money the government needs, which will cause terrifying, bankrupting inflation in consumer prices, which should lead me to say that buying gold, silver and oil are the only things that will let you keep up, and probably make you a fortune in the process.

And sure enough, it did lead me there! Whee! This investing stuff is easy!

The Mogambo Guru
for The Daily Reckoning

Government and Economy Decline In Tandem originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, offers a uniquely refreshing, perspective on the global economy, investing, gold, stocks and today’s markets. Its been called “the most entertaining read of the day.”


Daily Reckoning
gold

Gold and Government Debt: The Only Two Things Going Up

Let’s see…what’s in the news today?

Stocks went down again yesterday. The Dow got trimmed by 96 points.

Gold, on the other hand, went up to ,245.

The first half of the year came to a close with the S&P 500 down 6%, global stocks down 10%, oil down 5%, Chinese stocks down 27%, the euro down 14%.

What was up? Gold. Plus 13%.

There are two major pieces of unfinished business in the markets. Stocks have still not completed their bear market drop. Gold has not fully realized its bull market either.

Typically, markets move from excess to excess, passing sensible prices like a cross-town bus crossing main street. Back and forth, from over-valued to undervalued…and then back again. And passengers tend to get off on the wrong end!

Gold was very cheap at 0 in 1998. It will be very expensive sometime in the future. Perhaps at ,600?

Stocks were very expensive when the Dow was at 14,000. Where will they be very cheap? At Dow 6,000? Or Dow 3,000?

We don’t know. We don’t even no for sure what direction the markets are heading. All we know is that we’re somewhere between the top and the bottom. And gold seems to be heading up while stocks seem to be heading down. Until they’ve run their course, only a fool would bet against these trends.

And here’s another trend we wouldn’t bet against. Government debt is going up. In the US, the national debt is now officially at its highest level since WWII.

Yesterday, a film crew caught up with us on the banks of the Thames and posed the question:

“What’s the big deal about debt? The US had as much debt after WWII. The next years were among the best the country ever had…”

We sat at a sidewalk eatery near the river, with a camera focused on us. People walked by and stared. They figured we must be somebody. They looked disappointed when they couldn’t place us.

“The big deal is that we’re going broke,” we explained. “Until very recently debts of this magnitude were always associated with war. From time to time countries went broke. But they almost always did so because of emergency expenses driven by war. In other words, they were spending money for what looked like a very good reason – self preservation.

“For the first time in history, almost all the developed nations of the world are running regular, structural deficits. They’re going deeper and deeper into debt, as though there were a war…but there is no war.

“We have emergency budgets, but no emergency. You may think that they are fighting the emergency of a recession or the threat of a depression, but you would be wrong. Most of the deficits have little to do with stimulus or bailout efforts. They are just the ordinary results of social welfare programs that have gotten out of control.

“For the first time ever, countries are going broke just in the normal course of business. Without an emergency.

“The nice thing about WWII is that it came to an end. But there is no victory in the fight against old age. The pension burden won’t go down. It will go up. There is no VE day for national health programs. There are no tickertape parades…the troops are never de-mobilized and sent home…and the spending never goes down.

“We can never pay off the debt, in other words, because the debt never stops growing.

“National leaders at the G-20 conference over the weekend pledged to bring their deficits under control. Some governments are taking this seriously. The government of Britain, under David Cameron, seems to have the right idea. But we are still waiting to see what happens next.

“The modern welfare state was only invented about 150 years ago. The Romans tried it and it didn’t work out very well. The modern version is still an experiment.

“And currently, in America, there are more people getting money from the government than there are people paying taxes. Forty million people get food stamps. Millions more depend on federal tax credits and so forth. Still others have jobs that are either paid directly by the government or by a contractor for the government.

“All these people have the right to vote. Which is a shame. Because they are likely to vote for more social welfare spending. Then, governments will go broke. “

Yes, dear reader, the welfare state is another piece of unfinished business. So is the dollar-based monetary system. Both of them are approaching the end of the road.

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning

Gold and Government Debt: The Only Two Things Going Up originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, offers a uniquely refreshing, perspective on the global economy, investing, gold, stocks and today’s markets. Its been called “the most entertaining read of the day.”


Daily Reckoning
gold

State Government Taxes Get Creative

Municipal governments are finding all sorts of “creative” ways to close budget gaps. You’d do well to pay attention to this trend emerging in a city near you:

  • The city of Wichita will soon begin imposing a “false alarm fee,” for which the city government will fine homeowners whose residential security alarms go off accidentally
  • The San Francisco legislature has proposed to end its service of euthanizing pets free of charge. The city wants to institute a tax to give your dog or cat the needle, and another charge if you want them to “dispose” of it
  • It will now cost Washington, D.C., residents a month to keep the streetlights on at night
  • Las Vegas will be taxing amateur sports. City fees will double for all youth an adult sports leagues and summer camps
  • Smokers in New York will have to fork over an additional .60 per pack, the proceeds of which will flow directly into state coffers
  • We’ve honestly lost track of how many states are imposing new fees and regulations on strip clubs.

Even here in “Charm City,” Baltimore city legislators are about to pass a “beverage tax,” or “REVENGE TAX,” as the local Pepsi plant likes to proclaim.

The new tax comes on a wave of morality suddenly sweeping City Hall… You shouldn’t drink soda or beer, they say, so an extra 2 cent tax per bottle is fair. No word on why the new tax applies to bottled water too.

Still, a word of caution for investors. Even though it looks like there’s a bubble growing in municipal bonds…despite what looks like so many American cities on the brink of implosion…betting against municipal bonds is generally a lousy proposition.

“Shorting municipal bonds, or funds of muni bonds, is a bad idea for most investors,” we advised in the latest beta issue of Apogee Advisory. “Muni pure plays most often pay monthly or quarterly dividends. Short sellers would have to cover them while they wait for their bet to pan out. And the muni breakdown could be months away, if not years.

“Also, when muni funds do suffer, the fallout may not be as dramatic as the housing bust. Take an ETF of Californian muni bonds (CMF). You’d think it would have suffered terribly over the last few years. But it never fell more than 20% during the worst of the credit crisis.

“Even if you manage to pick the right municipal bond to short, and manage to not wither away paying dividends, there’s a perfectly good chance you still won’t get paid. It’s an all-too-common practice for cities and states to rescue failing projects (with taxpayer money) to prevent the repercussions of a bond default. It’s this odd ‘moral commitment’ that set the stage for the famous ratings war between MBIA and short seller Bill Ackman. This is also the reason residents of Jefferson County, Ala., pay a month for the privilege of flushing their toilets.

“In essence, betting against muni bonds directly is expensive, with a small potential payout. Don’t bother.”

Ian Mathias
for The Daily Reckoning

State Government Taxes Get Creative originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, offers a uniquely refreshing, perspective on the global economy, investing, gold, stocks and today’s markets. Its been called “the most entertaining read of the day.”


Daily Reckoning
gold

Correction Turns “Great” Thanks to Government Intervention

The surprise at the beginning of the day yesterday was China’s announcement that it would end the dollar peg.

The surprise at the end of the day was that it didn’t make any difference. The news got investors all antsy…they spent the day preparing to drive prices higher. But at the end of the day the Dow finished lower – by 8 points.

It didn’t make any difference to the stock market. Even the currency market yawned. Bloomberg:

The currency advanced 0.36 percent to 6.802 per dollar as of 1:45 p.m. in Hong Kong, the biggest gain since Oct. 7, 2008, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trading System. The 12- month non-deliverable yuan forward rose 1.4 percent to 6.6209, implying traders are betting on a 2.7 percent appreciation.

What, not even a 1% move?

Our guess is that China has just stolen a march on its US critics. The currency move didn’t make any real difference. And by agreeing to end the peg, the fickle finger of blame now turns from the East to the West.

The complaint against China was that it was under-pricing its output, by keeping the yuan tied to the dollar. America was China’s number one customer. It made sense to keep the two currencies in line. But since China is a more efficient producer, it also caused US companies to lose market share to Chinese competitors or to shift their own production to Chinese subcontractors.

The best solution to that problem was just to ignore it. But US lawmakers needed a scapegoat and China was the best they could do.

But what are they going to do now? Who to blame? They could try “bourgeoisie parasites,” like Hugo Chavez. But Marxist mumbo jumbo never caught on in the US. Too many voters wanted to be bourgeois!

While China might have under-priced its output, the US certainly overpriced its ability to consume all that Made-In-China stuff.

“It’s just bad economics to pretend we can fix the lives of middle class American workers by getting the Chinese to revalue its currency vis-a-vis the dollar – it’s a horrible misconception,” Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd. said in a June 15 radio interview from Hong Kong with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Surveillance.

But don’t worry, dear reader. This is a problem that takes care of itself.

“Bill, you’ve been talking about a Great Correction for months. I don’t disbelieve you, but what the hell is a Great Correction?”

Well….

A Great Correction is what you get when a great many things need to be corrected at the same time. When the crisis of ’07-’09 came, economists immediately began talking about a ‘recovery.’ But there was no way the economy could go back to being what it had been. What it had been was excessive, over-the-top and unsustainable. It couldn’t go back. It had to go forward.

Specifically, it had to correct the many mistakes made by Americans who spent too much…and Chinese who made too much stuff for them to buy. On the Chinese side, that correction will take time. But it’s not a major change of direction. There is now more consuming going on in the emerging markets than there is in the US. GM sells more cars in China than it does in North America. And Coke says its profits went up in the first quarter, even though its North American sales went down.

China will have to adjust its product mix and its marketing/distribution system. But there is no theoretical reason it can’t continue doing what it does best – making things. China’s economy can recover (it just needs something to recover from!)

The bigger problem is on the US side, where no recovery is possible. Many people have houses they can’t afford – even after the price of housing was cut by around 20%. Many banks have more debt than credit, even after dozens of them have been knocked out of business. The big banks have still not been corrected. Their mistakes went into the Federal Reserve’s vault. So that is another thing that remains to be corrected.

At the household level, people have generally spent too much money. They had no savings…even as they were getting closer and closer to retirement. That situation has begun – but only begun – to correct itself. Savings rates are rising, while a good deal of debt has been cancelled, written off, or restructured.

Of course, there were many, many more mistakes – from private equity deals to commodity prices to over-employment in the retail sector. Most of them are being corrected.

If that were all there were to it, it would be an important correction, but not a Great Correction. As we keep saying, private industry and private initiative can make mistakes. But if you really want to make a mess of things you need taxpayers support.

Of course, the taxpayers were in on this from the get-go. The feds largely created the bubble in the housing market. And then, when the bubble blew up, they took over Fannie and Freddie…stuck the taxpayers with trillions more in liabilities…and generally made things worse.

But there are a couple of things, specifically, that make us think this correction will be worthy of the Great modifier.

First, it appears to mark the end of a 60-year credit expansion. That alone ought to make for an interesting correction.

Second, it also appears to signal the high water market for the USA. America may be on top of the world for a while longer; but other countries are growing much faster so that, relatively, the US will never be in such a superior position again.

The third thing to be corrected is the most interesting of all. The US-dollar based money system, created in ’71, is surely building up for some kind of correction.

While the private sector generally tries to correct its problems, the public sector adds to its own. It is living beyond its means. Sooner or later, it will need to be corrected too.

When will it happen? When the bond market is ready.

Already, in Europe, bond buyers forced the issue. Governments have begun to address the problem of excess public deficits. At least people are talking about it…and governments are promising cutbacks.

“We’re all austerians now,” says Martin Wolf, reprising the language that got us into the mess in the first place. (Richard Nixon once famously remarked that “we’re all Keynesians now,” referring to the widespread belief that government needs to meet downturns with counter-cyclical stimulus spending.)

Yes, dear reader, austerity is in style in Europe this summer. But not in the US. Which makes us think that investors are making a big mistake by buying dollar bonds. Dollar bonds are the investor’s choice because the US, and only the US, is ready, willing and able to print as many dollars as it needs.

Which is what worries us…

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning

Correction Turns “Great” Thanks to Government Intervention originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, offers a uniquely refreshing, perspective on the global economy, investing, gold, stocks and today’s markets. Its been called “the most entertaining read of the day.”


Daily Reckoning
gold

The Correlation Between Morons and Government Debt

DWS Funds is a “member of Deutsche Bank Group,” which I assume because it says so right on the cover of DWS Active magazine, an outfit which has somehow, without me actually noticing, over the years taken over some holdings of mine, so that now I sit, locked in a bunker and peering out at a hostile world through a periscope, wondering how a bunch of foreigners, who almost certainly hate my guts, in this case Germans, took possession of my American mutual fund, and thus took possession of my money, probably like somebody took possession of the Federal Reserve and thus took possession of America’s money, in which case we know exactly who it was, and it was Alan Greenspan and then Ben Bernanke, two villains who chaired the Federal Reserve and whose names will live in infamy because of the inflationary terrors unleashed by their irresponsible creations of more and more money, even more treacherous so than the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941, which gave rise to that “live in infamy” phrase, as these are The Guys who destroyed the buying power of the dollar and destroyed the USA.

Anyway, the magazine doesn’t get into any of that, or even mention how I hate the Federal Reserve with an incandescent, white-hot fury, and instead presents an interesting graph titled “Where are interest rates headed next?” which showed the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds graphed from 1954 to 2009.

It is interesting in many ways, I suppose, but the only one I am interested in is the one where the only logical conclusion one can draw is, “Head for the hills! We’re freaking doomed!”

In this particular case, in 1954, where the graph begins, the yield on the 10-year bond was about 3%, and it gradually increased exponentially, rising and rising, faster and faster, exponentially, until reaching its high in 1981, when the 10-year bond yielded a juicy 15.32%! Nice!

Thus 1981 would have been the perfect time to buy longer-term bonds yielding around 15%, because ever since 1981, rates have been falling in a mirror-image exponential fashion until they are now, 28-years later according to the graph and 29 years according to the calendar, again yielding around 3%!

The lesson is in the knowledge that because the price of a bond changes inversely with the yield, the guys who bought long-term bonds in 1981 have gotten BOTH the 15% yield AND a huge increase in the value of the bonds as interest rates fell!

Taking the completely simplistic interpretation, this means to not buy bonds now, or at any time in the next 28 years, if there is anything to this 55-year cycle thing, which I doubt because nobody has ever suggested that there is such a thing as a 55-year cycle, and I just made it up because it sounded alarmist and I am actively trying to get people freaked out enough to say, “Throw Obama and his coterie of incompetent One-Worlder socialist government-hacks who have never had a real job or started a real business, and thus have no idea of how anything works outside of academia and government, out of office, down the stairs, and out, out, out into the slimy side streets and fetid back alleys, to live with the other diseased vermin found there, and where they shall be forever shunned as unclean,” which I admit is a little too stilted in language, for one thing, and I don’t think it is going to happen for another, although it should, and would, if I could get “The Mogambo Omnipotence Act” through Congress, whereby I could seize complete dictatorial power.

And if you are, indeed, buying government bonds now, then you are indeed a big idiot, and people are justified in laughing at you derisively, pointing at you and saying, “Look, children! There is the moron that was buying long-term government debt at the end of the 55-year interest-rate cycle that the Wonderful And Wise Mogambo (WAWM) first introduced to the world in a paragraph above!”

Well, I know that it seems cruel to belittle such morons and mental defectives, especially since the losses they will suffer from doing such a stupid thing as buying bonds at the lows of the new Mogambo 55-Year Cycle Theory (M55YCT) will destroy them, which makes adding Stinging Mogambo Insults (SMI) to their very real injury seem petty and vicious, which, I admit, it is.

In my own defense, “petty” and “vicious” are actually just two of my more prominent Mogambo Personality Traits (MPT), along with related other characteristics such as angry, paranoid, surly, sarcastic, cynical and (depending on your definition) borderline psychotic.

In case you were wondering, the average yield on the 10-year government bond since 1954 until 2009, from the 55-year period’s opening and ending lows of 3% and including the 15.32% high right there in the middle in 1981, is, according to these guys, 6.36%, which means that the current 10-year yield of 3.3% is about half of the long-term average! Who the hell would buy bonds now, except the mentally defective or government, as redundant as that is turning out to be?

I make this point only because I am obsessed with inflation in prices because I am obsessed with the way people go crazy in response to inflation in prices, mostly because I am obsessed with how these bankrupted, starving morons are going to see how high gold, silver and oil have risen as their poverty and misery increased, and then they will remember how I was always yelling at them to buy gold, silver and oil for all those years, and how I called them “morons” when they didn’t.

And then I am obsessed that they will figure that I must have a lot of gold, silver and oil, and that maybe they would come over to my house and assault the Big, Beautiful Mogambo Fortress (BBMF) to get a little of that sound money and valuable assets with which to relieve their wretchedness, and I will watch with my finger on the trigger while my wife and kids will be grabbing at my arm, pleading, “Don’t shoot! They are our friends and neighbors, and I see grandma in the crowd, too!” while the mindless mob keeps getting closer and closer, step by step, more menacing by the minute, and you don’t know what to do!

And in my panic I will remember the last time this kind of situation came up was when the minister said to me, “Do you take this woman to be your wife, to love and to hold, in sickness and in health, blah, blah, blah?” and how THAT turned out!

So, desperate for some good news, I was gratified when I turned the page to see another spiffy graph, titled “Positive Correlation”! Something positive!

Well, it shows what appears to be the coefficients of correlation, where everything ranges between 0.0 (no correlation) and 1.0 (perfect correlation), as applied to inflation in consumer prices over the last 5 years versus various interest-sensitive things, like short-term bonds, large-cap equities and TIPS bonds, with the numero uno – number one, top dog and winner by half a length! – asset showing the highest correlation with inflation being (may I have the envelope, please?) floating-rate loans!

The rate on these loans correlates the highest with subsequent inflation, with a correlation coefficient at just under 0.5, swamping the second-place entrant, commodities, which came in at about 0.28!

I say, “Hmmm! Interesting!” in that low, mirthless, hollow laugh of Pure Mogambo Greed (PMG) as I perceive, perhaps, some interesting advantage in the use of these particularly interesting facts!

Unfortunately, I, as a pathetic genetic freak, deserve a Handicapped Parking sticker because I lack, through a genetic defect that is no fault of my own, the requisite intelligence to understand how to take advantage of the facts, further hampered by a genetic defect of a complete lack of ambition, overlaid with a genetically-determined lazy streak a mile wide.

All of this tragic genetic mumbo-jumbo prevents me from ever being rich enough to ever finally get out of this little stupid nowhere town, where all the stupid people are so stupid that they don’t buy gold, silver and oil in response to the horrific inflationary implications of the unholy Obama/Federal Reserve alliance creating and spending So Freaking Much (SFM) money, a situation that makes whole swaths of neurons in your brain sputter (Zzzt! Zzzt!) and die horrible deaths from merely contemplating it!

Fortunately, I found a better investment than shorting bonds, which is a guaranteed winner in itself: buy gold, silver and oil, which are all unbelievably undervalued by a Long, Long Shot (LLS), and getting longer, shot-wise, with every new dollar created by the Federal Reserve to feed the insatiable, grasping maw of the government.

All of which make gold and silver and oil go up in price, which is the whole point of investing, and again proving that “Whee! This investing stuff is easy!”

The Mogambo Guru
for The Daily Reckoning

The Correlation Between Morons and Government Debt originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, offers a uniquely refreshing, perspective on the global economy, investing, gold, stocks and today’s markets. Its been called “the most entertaining read of the day.”


Daily Reckoning
gold